MNCS Morning Navigator

22 Oktober 2021

MNCS Morning Navigator October 22, 2021

Global Market Highlights

DJIA fell slightly by -0.02% on Thursday (21/10), meanwhile S&P 500 rose by +0.30% followed by Nasdaq (+0.62%). Wall Street closed mixed but mostly higher as US released better jobs and housing data. The US Labor Department reported that weekly initial jobless claims hit its 19-month low reaching 290.000 in the week ended October 16th from previously at 296.000 level. In addition, US Existing Home Sales MoM surged to an 8-month high in September-21 which increased 7% from previously at -2% level in the previous month. Today the market will be looking forward to several data releases such as: 1) US Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash; 2) US Retail Sales YoY; 3) Japan Inflation Rate YoY.

Domestic Update
• The total loans in Indonesia increased 2.21% YoY in September-21 according to Bank Indonesia (BI). The total loans grew positively in the last 4 consecutive months. MNCS Comment: In our opinion, the positive growth in credit was in line with improving consumer sentiment and manufacturing activity on the back of gradually increasing mobility driven by domestic pandemic conditions that are getting better. The positive growth in the credit market is a good sign for the domestic economy.
• Furthermore, there was an addition of 89 new Covid-19 cases in Jakarta yesterday.

Company News
1. BBCA IJ booked a positive loan growth during 9M21 was driven by the corporate loan segment (+7.1% YoY) which contributed 44.5% from total outstanding loans. Followed by growth in CASA reaching +21% YoY to 9M21. On the one hand, net profit increased by +15.8% YoY to IDR23.2 trillion in 9M21 (vs IDR20.04 trillion in 9M20) (Emitennews). MNCS Comment: BBCA’s bottom line performance was in line with our forecast with a run rate of 76% of our FY21E target. BBCA is currently trading at level 31.55x/4.87x PER/PBV.
2. BBTN IJ recorded financing credit growth of +6.03% YoY to IDR270.27 trillion in 9M21 (vs IDR254.91 trillion in 9M20). Net profit was recorded at IDR1.52 trillion in 9M21 or up +35.32% YoY (vs IDR1.12 trillion in 9M20). Subsidized mortgages as main support for BBTN credit growth with an increase of +11.74% YoY to IDR129.98 trillion in 9M21 (Trenasia). MNCS Comment: We believe that the extension of 0% mortgage down payment and KKB until FY22E will greatly benefit the company in the future as we know that BBTN controls 86% of the subsidized mortgage market share in Indonesia in 3Q21. BBTN is trading at the level of 9.41x/0.92x PER/PBV.
3. LPKR IJ posted IDR3.9 trillion marketing sales as of September-21 or equivalent to 92.85% of FY21E revised target of IDR4.2 trillion. Landed house sales and demand growth in San Diego Hills contributed 59% of total marketing sales (Kontan). MNCS Comment: We see an increase in sales driven by government stimulus by providing VAT relaxation. The extension of 0% mortgage down payment for up to FY22E is projected to encourage the company to exceed its FY21E sales target and increase sales going forward. Currently, LPKR is trading at level 0,66x PBV.

IHSG Updates
JCI weakened by -0.35% to 6,632.97 on Thursday (21/10) followed by net foreign buy reaching IDR531.73 billion. JCI closed lower along with weakness in almost all sectors led by the energy sector (-3.26%), followed by the industrial sector (-2.69%). On the other hand, the tech sector strengthened by +1.00%, followed by the cyclical consumer sector (+0.72%). The weakening of the JCI was still driven by the profit-taking of a number of investors and the pressure from the majority of Asian market indices which closed at the red zone. On the other hand, the Rupiah weakened at IDR14,123 level in the spot market. Today's recommendations: MPPA, CENT, BIRD, DOID.

Corporate Action

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