MNCS Morning Navigator

26 Oktober 2021

MNCS Morning Navigator October 26, 2021

Global Market Highlights

DJIA rose by +0.18% on Monday (25/10), followed by S&P 500 (+0.47%), and Nasdaq (+0.90%). Wall Street ended higher due to a robust start to the US corporate earnings season and an improving economic outlook. On the other hand, the US Chicago Fed National Activity Index fell to -0.13 on September-21 from previously at 0.05 level on August-21 due to production-related supply chain problems. Meanwhile, Germany IFO Business Climate fell to 97.7 in October-21 from previously at 98.9 level in September-21. Today the market will be looking forward to several data releases such as: 1) US CB Consumer Confidence; 2) US Monthly Budget Statement; 3) US House Price Index YoY.

Domestic Update
• Bank Indonesia (BI) reported Indonesia's money supply (M2) grew 8% YoY to IDR7,287tn in Sep-21, higher than previous month growth of 6.9% YoY. MNCS Comment: The increase in M2 was driven by M1 and quasy money that recorded a growth of 11.2% YoY and 4.5% YoY respectively. Factor affecting the growth of M2 was credit disbursement that grew 2% YoY. We expect with improving consumer sentiment, higher public mobility, the ample liquidity in the economy would be translated into higher economic output and gradual increase in inflation.
• Furthermore, the second dose of vaccination rate nationally reaching 32.7% or equivalent to 68.05 million people.

Company News
1. PTBA IJ recorded IDR19.38 trillion revenue in 9M21 or increased by +51% YoY (vs IDR12.85 trillion in 9M20). COGS increased from IDR9.33 trillion in 9M20 to IDR11.13 trillion in 9M21. PTBA recorded a significant net profit increase of +175.72% YoY to IDR4.77 trillion in 9M21 (vs net profit of IDR1.73 in 9M20) (Kontan). MNCS Comment: We see the increase in PTBA’s performance, one of which is driven by the domestic and global economic recovery which boosted coal demand accompanied by a significant increase in coal prices reaching the level of USD203/ton on September-30, 2021. PTBA is currently trading at level 8.87x/1.82x PER/PBV.
2. BBNI IJ posted IDR28.70 trillion net interest income (NII) in 9M21 rose by +17.6% YoY, the growth supported by the spike in loan disbursement at IDR570.64 trillion, an increase of 3.74% YoY. BBNI’s recorded IDR7.77 trillion net profit in 9M21 or an increase of +73.9% YoY (vs IDR4.34 trillion in 9M20) (Emitennews). MNCS Comment: We see that performance achievement is driven by the results of BBNI's digital transformation to strengthen capabilities in transactional banking. BBNI is trading at the level of 13.63x/1.18x PER/PBV.
3. KLBF IJ recorded IDR19.09 trillion revenue in 9M21 or increased by +11.70% YoY (vs IDR17.09 trillion in 9M20). COGS increased from IDR9.32 trillion in 9M20 to IDR10.82 trillion in 9M21. KLBF recorded IDR2.28 trillion net profit in 9M21 or an increase of +12.87% YoY (vs net profit of IDR2.02 in 9M20) (Emitennews). MNCS Comment: KLBF's performance growth was driven by domestic sales which increased by +12.3% YoY. These sales include prescription drugs, health products, nutrition, distribution and logistics. KLBF revised its FY21E sales and net growth around 11%-13%. Currently, KLBF is trading at level 22.51x/3.70x PER/PBV.

IHSG Updates
JCI weakened by -0.35% to 6,625.70 on Monday (25/10) followed by net foreign buys reaching IDR3.05 trillion. JCI closed lower along with a decline in several sectors led by the transportation sector (-1.46%), followed by the non-cyclical consumer sector (-1.35%). On the other hand, the technology sector strengthened by +4.22%, followed by the energy sector (+1.83%). The JCI's weakening was still driven by pressure from profit taking by a number of investors. Meanwhile, today's sentiment is considered positive, starting with the change in the Indonesia Covid-19 cases on Sunday reaching 623 cases, the lowest since June 4 last year, followed by the case of China's Evergrande which has started paying their interest obligations to its bondholders. On the other hand, the Rupiah weakened towards the level of IDR14,158 in the spot market. We estimate the JCI will move in the range of 6,550-6,700. Today's recommendations: MEDC, AMRT, IRRA, AGII.

Corporate Action

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