Global Market Highlights
DJIA was up by +1.07% on Tuesday (25/10), followed by the S&P500 (+1.63%) and the Nasdaq (+2.25%). Wall Street rose as the US T-note 10Y yield declined to 4.11%. In addition, investors were also watching the release of CB Consumer Confidence data in Oct-2022 which fell to the level of 102.5 points, or lower than the consensus estimate of 106.5 points. This is expected to slow down the inflation rate going forward and make the Fed monetary policy to be more dovish. Today, the market will be looking toward several data releases such as: 1) US New Home Sales MoM Sep; 2) US Goods Trade Balance Adv Sep; 3) France Consumer Confidence Oct.
Domestic Update
• Bank Indonesia (BI) reported money supply (M2) grew by 9.1% YoY in Sep-22 (vs 9.5% YoY in Aug-22). MNCS Comment: Growth in the money supply was mainly influenced by developments in net foreign assets, government finances, and lending. BI also reported that bank credit continued to grow positively by 10.8% YoY in Sep-22 (vs 10.3% YoY in Aug-22).
• Furthermore, the national Covid-19 daily rate had increased by 3,008 active cases (25/10).
Company News
1. TAPG IJ recorded a revenue growth of +51.51% YoY to IDR6.75 trillion in 9M22 (vs IDR4.45 trillion in 9M21). Meanwhile, net profit rose by +227.74% YoY to IDR2.34 trillion (vs IDR713.17 billion in 9M21) (Kontan). MNCS Comment: Revenue growth was supported by higher CPO production by +15.9% YoY and Palm Kernel by +21.0% YoY accompanied by high CPO prices. Meanwhile, the increase in net profit in line with the increase in efficiency was indicated by the increase in margin where GPM and OPM in 9M22 were recorded at 41.22%/33.77%, respectively (vs 23.47%/16.10% in 9M21), as well as an increase in JV profit by +181.54% YoY. Currently, TAPG is traded at the level of 4.49x/1.50x PBV.
2. ARTO IJ posted a net profit of IDR40.57 billion in 9M22 (vs net loss of IDR32.61 billion in 9M21) (Emiten News). MNCS Comment: The increase in net profit was supported by: 1) growth in credit and sharia financing by +118.84% YoY; 2) increased NIM to 10.0% in 3Q22 (vs 7.3% in 3Q21); 3) CoF fell to 2.0% in 3Q22 (vs 3.3% in 3Q21). Meanwhile, NPL was at a level of 2.1% in 3Q22. Currently, ARTO is traded at the level of 9.19x PBV.
3. BBYB IJ posted an increase in net loss in 9M22 to IDR601.17 billion (vs IDR264.74 billion in 9M21) (Emiten News). MNCS Comment: The increase in net loss was recorded amid an increase in net interest income in 9M22 by +387.58% YoY to IDR989.28 billion (vs IDR202.90 billion in 9M21). We see the increase in the company's operating expenses by +261.19% YoY to IDR1.90 trillion (vs IDR525.35 billion in 9M21) to be a burden on the company's financial performance. BBYB is currently traded at the level of 4.06x PBV.
IHSG Updates
JCI weakened -0.07% to 7,048.38 on Tuesday (25/10), followed by net foreign buy which reached IDR298.32 billion. The majority of sectors experienced weakness, led by the energy sector (-1.12%) and followed by the transportation sector (-0.61%). On the other hand, the sectors that experienced strengthening were the property sector (+1.07%) followed by the technology sector (+0.73%). The weakening of the index was in line with most of the Asian bourses amid the strengthening of Wall Street. Investors responded negatively to the release of US Manufacturing PMI data for Oct-2022 which declined to recession level at 49.9 points from 52 points in Sep-2022, and was lower than the consensus level of 51 points. On the other hand, the Rupiah exchange rate closed lower at IDR15,623/USD. We estimate that the JCI will move in the price range of 6,900-7,100. Today's recommendation: CPIN, INKP, SMRA, UNTR.
Corporate Actions
Cum Dividend: AMOR (IDR32.5/share)
RUPS: PTRO, KOPI
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