Global Market Highlights
Wall Street closed mixed on Wednesday (26/10) with DJIA strengthened by +0.01%, while the S&P500 (-0.74%) and the Nasdaq (-2.04%). The positive catalyst came from the decline in the yield on the US T-note 10Y to 4.03%. Meanwhile, investors were watching the release of Wholesale Inventories Adv Sep-22 data which grew but slowed to +0.8% MoM (vs +1.4% MoM in Aug-22), below the consensus estimate of +1.0% MoM. Investors also watched the release of New Home Sales Sep-22 data which was above its consensus of 603k units (vs 585k units on consensus), where the increase sparked fears that the housing market was still solid which could encourage the Fed to carry out further monetary tightening more aggressively. Today, the market will be looking toward several data releases such as: 1) US GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv Q3; 2) US Durable Goods Orders MoM Sep; 3) Germany GfK Consumer Confidence Nov.
Domestic Update
• Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs, Airlangga Hartarto, predicts Indonesia's trade balance surplus will reach USD60 billion in 2022. MNCS Comment: We estimate that Indonesia's trade balance surplus will continue until the end of the year with a total value of USD50-55 billion.
• Furthermore, the national Covid-19 daily rate had increased by 3,048 active cases (26/10).
Company News
1. BMRI IJ reported a +59.41% YoY consolidated net profit growth in 9M22 to IDR30.65 trillion (vs IDR19.23 trillion in 9M21) (Investor ID). MNCS Comment: The increase in net profit was supported by: 1) increase in net interest income by +20.01% YoY; 2) NIM which rose to 5.42% (vs 5.03% in 9M21); 3) credit growth by +14.28% YoY. Meanwhile, NPL fell to 2.24% (vs 2.96% in 9M21). BMRI is currently traded at the level of 2.35x PBV.
2. UNTR IJ reported Komatsu heavy equipment sales in Sep-2022 to reach 545 units. This made the accumulated sales of heavy equipment up to 9M22 to reach 4,534 units (Market Bisnis). MNCS Comment: Although sales of heavy equipment in Sep-2022 fell -7.63% MoM (vs 590 units in Aug-2022), however the YTD sales of heavy equipment up to 9M22 reached 4,534 units or up +106.65% YoY (vs 2,194 units in 9M21). With the sales target of heavy equipment in FY22E reaching 5,000 units, the realization up to 9M22 is 90.68%. Currently, UNTR is traded at the level of 5.98x/1.59x PER/PBV.
3. DSNG IJ posted a +30.34% YoY revenue growth in 9M22 to IDR6.59 trillion (vs IDR5.05 trillion in 9M21). Meanwhile, net profit increased significantly by +114.75% YoY to IDR893.11 billion (vs IDR415.88 billion in 9M21) (Emiten News). MNCS Comment: The increase in revenue was in line with: 1) the increase in CPO sales volume growth by +3.07% YoY accompanied by the increase in ASP by +27.68% YoY; 2) the increase in PKO sales volume by +3.04% YoY accompanied by an increase in ASP by +32.03% YoY. Meanwhile, the increase in net profit was in line with the company's extensive margins, where GPM and OPM in 9M22 were recorded at 32.52%/23.65%, respectively (vs 25.87%/17.81% in 9M21). Currently, DSNG is traded at the level of 4.81x/0.75x PER/PBV.
IHSG Updates
JCI weakened by -0.06% to 7,043.94 on Wednesday (26/10), followed by net foreign buy which reached IDR216.25 billion. A number of sectors weakened and weighed on the index's pace, led by the financial sector (-1.52%) and followed by the infrastructure sector (-0.35%). On the other hand, the sector that experienced strengthening was the technology sector (+3.29%) followed by the energy sector (+1.25%). The index weakened amid strengthening Asian markets and Wall Street. We see investors tend to wait and see ahead of the release of US GDP growth data in 3Q22, where the consensus estimated for +2.4% QoQ, higher than the realization in 2Q22 of -0.6% QoQ. On the other hand, the Rupiah exchange rate closed higher at IDR15,570/USD. We estimate that the JCI will move in the price range of 6,900-7,000. Today's recommendation: ANTM, BEST, DOID, ITMG.
Corporate Actions
RUPS: BFIN, NOBU, OILS
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